EU Report predicts peaceful but low-competition Ekiti governorship election

Politics

ADO-EKITI, Nigeria (NPA) — Yiaga Africa in partnership with Centre for Media and Society, ElectHER, Int. Press Centre, TAF AFRICA, and the Kukah Centre have launched a new pre-election assessment report by the European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EU-SDGN), which has projected that the 2026 Ekiti State governorship election is likely to be peaceful, but warned that voter apathy, vote buying, political tensions, misinformation, and internal party crises could still threaten the credibility of the process.

The report, titled Ekiti State Off-Cycle Governorship Election Pre-Assessment Report, examined the political environment, electoral preparations, media landscape, participation of women, youths and persons with disabilities, as well as security risks ahead of the June 20, 2026, governorship poll in the state.

According to the report, the overall security situation in Ekiti remains relatively calm, with most pre-election activities conducted without serious violence or major disruptions. However, the report noted that worsening economic conditions and public dissatisfaction could encourage vote trading and reduce voter turnout.

The assessment also stated that many residents perceive the election as lacking competitiveness due to what it described as the “residual advantage of incumbency” enjoyed by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Governor Abiodun Abayomi Oyebanji.

The report said internal crises, leadership disputes, and limited resources among opposition parties have weakened electoral competition in the state.

“The general perception in the state is that the election will not be competitive due to the residual advantage of incumbency and elite consensus among major actors in favour of the sitting governor,” the report stated.

The document identified the APC as the dominant political force in Ekiti State, noting that Governor Oyebanji’s re-election campaign is anchored on his “Shared Prosperity Agenda,” which focuses on continuity, economic growth, infrastructure development, and human capital investment.

The report further disclosed that the APC campaign structure is being coordinated by Senate Leader, Opeyemi Bamidele, with support from former governors Niyi Adebayo and Kayode Fayemi. Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani was also named as chairman of the APC National Campaign Committee for the election.

Despite the APC’s dominance, the report noted signs of internal disagreements within the ruling party, especially over allegations surrounding consensus arrangements and the governorship ambitions of Engineer Kayode Olubunmi Ojo.

On the opposition front, the report said the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Dr Oluwole Oluyede, remained entangled in internal party disputes and leadership divisions linked to rival factions within the party.

According to the assessment, Oluyede’s candidacy was initially rejected before a Court of Appeal judgment restored his nomination in March 2026. The report added that the lingering crisis within the PDP could hinder effective campaigns and voter mobilisation.

The report also revealed that some opposition figures were exploring the formation of a coalition aimed at challenging the APC in the election. The coalition reportedly seeks to address claims of marginalisation by the Ekiti South Senatorial District, which has never produced a governor since 1999.

However, the report observed that coalition talks had progressed slowly and lacked a unifying political figure capable of galvanising opposition forces across the state.

The EU-backed assessment further identified several security flashpoints ahead of the election, particularly in Ado-Ekiti, Ikole, Moba, and Ilejemeje Local Government Areas.

It warned that urban violence, kidnapping, cross-border criminal activities, vote buying, political thuggery, misinformation, and excessive use of force by security personnel could trigger tension during campaigns, voting, and result collation.

According to the report, the Nigeria Police Force has already developed Operational Order 08/2026, which proposes the deployment of 9,780 conventional police officers, 25 units of mobile policemen, 200 patrol vehicles, 12 Armoured Personnel Carriers, and three helicopters for election security.

The report said the Ekiti State Police Command, led by Commissioner of Police Michael Falade, was expected to coordinate security operations alongside other agencies, including the DSS, NSCDC, FRSC, NDLEA, Immigration Service, and Correctional Service.

The report also raised concerns over the growing spread of fake news and political disinformation through WhatsApp groups and local radio platforms.

It noted that 78 per cent of respondents surveyed identified WhatsApp as the primary source of election-related misinformation in the state.

On media coverage, the report accused federal and state-owned media outlets of favouring the ruling APC while opposition parties struggled with limited visibility due to financial and institutional constraints.

The assessment also highlighted risks facing journalists, including harassment, arrests, intimidation, confiscation of equipment, and legal threats under the Cybercrimes Act and Electoral Act provisions.

In terms of voter demographics, the report disclosed that Ekiti State had 987,647 registered voters during the 2023 general election, with women slightly outnumbering men on the voter register.

It further noted that women, youths, and persons with disabilities remain underrepresented in party leadership and elective positions despite increasing political participation.

The report observed that no political party fielded a female governorship candidate for the 2026 election, while structural barriers, high nomination fees, and entrenched patronage systems continue to limit inclusion.

The EU-SDGN report concluded by urging the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties, security agencies, civil society organisations, and the media to intensify efforts toward ensuring a transparent, peaceful, inclusive, and credible election ahead of the 2027 general elections.